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Jonkopings Sodra vs Gais — Superettan 2026

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gais
Gais
11/5/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Stadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra41%
×Draw26%
Gais33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.39
Gais
1.21

Jonkopings Sodra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 76 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.51
Gais
1.21

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.20
Gais
1.26

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
67%
Jonkopings Sodra or Gais
74%
Draw or Gais
59%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
19%
Gais wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
75%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
40%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
16%
Gais 1+ goals
70%
Gais 2+ goals
34%
Gais 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
56%
Gais (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.51 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gais attack 1.21 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
41%
level
26%
Gais scores more
33%

Jonkopings Sodra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Jonkopings Sodra 0–2 Gais

Gais beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-0 in Superettan on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadsparksvallen in Jönköping.