Gais 0–1 Jonkopings Sodra: Result & Stats

Gais

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jonkopings Sodra

5/20/2023

Superettan · Round 8Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Gais41%

×Draw26%

Jonkopings Sodra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchJonkopings Sodra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Gais

1.41

Jonkopings Sodra

1.25

Gais creates 13% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 90 away

1.25

creates per match

1.30

1.21

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Gais

1.25

Jonkopings Sodra

1.30

allows per match

Gais

1.21

Jonkopings Sodra

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gais+0.00on par

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gais or draw

67%

Gais or Jonkopings Sodra

74%

Draw or Jonkopings Sodra

59%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

19%

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

76%

Gais 2+ goals

41%

Gais 3+ goals

17%

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

71%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

36%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

55%

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.25 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gais scores more

41%

level

26%

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

33%

Gais at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff