Jong Utrecht 1–2 Jong AZ: Result & Stats

Jong Utrecht

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jong AZ

2/12/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 25Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong Utrecht42%

×Draw24%

Jong AZ35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong UtrechtExpected goals in this matchJong AZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.47

Jong Utrecht

1.63

Jong AZ

1.47

Jong Utrecht creates 11% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 147 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

1.67

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Jong Utrecht

1.29

Jong AZ

1.27

allows per match

Jong Utrecht

1.67

Jong AZ

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

Jong AZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw

65%

Jong Utrecht or Jong AZ

76%

Draw or Jong AZ

58%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

21%

Jong AZ wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

80%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

48%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

22%

Jong AZ 1+ goals

77%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

43%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

55%

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more

42%

level

24%

Jong AZ scores more

35%

Jong Utrecht at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff