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Jong AZ vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
3/7/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 29AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong AZ51%
×Draw22%
Jong Utrecht27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.93
Jong Utrecht
1.34

Jong AZ creates 44% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
73%
Jong AZ or Jong Utrecht
78%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
49%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
29%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
85%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
57%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
30%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
74%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
39%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
66%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.93

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jong AZ scores more
51%
level
22%
Jong Utrecht scores more
27%

Jong AZ at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 5–1 Jong Utrecht

Jong AZ beat Jong Utrecht 5-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.