Jong Utrecht 3–2 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

Jong Utrecht

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Den Bosch

11/24/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 17Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong Utrecht43%

×Draw24%

Den Bosch33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong UtrechtExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.43

Jong Utrecht

1.65

Den Bosch

1.43

Jong Utrecht creates 15% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

1.29

creates per match

1.19

1.67

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Jong Utrecht

1.29

Den Bosch

1.19

allows per match

Jong Utrecht

1.67

Den Bosch

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw

67%

Jong Utrecht or Den Bosch

76%

Draw or Den Bosch

57%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

22%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

81%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

49%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

23%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

76%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

42%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

56%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.65

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more

43%

level

24%

Den Bosch scores more

33%

Jong Utrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jong Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff