Den Bosch 2–0 Jong Utrecht: Result & Stats

Den Bosch

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jong Utrecht

1/27/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 21Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Den Bosch52%

×Draw22%

Jong Utrecht26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Den BoschExpected goals in this matchJong Utrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.29

Den Bosch

1.92

Jong Utrecht

1.29

Den Bosch creates 49% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 147 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.50

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Den Bosch

1.67

Jong Utrecht

1.07

allows per match

Den Bosch

1.50

Jong Utrecht

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Jong Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw

74%

Den Bosch or Jong Utrecht

78%

Draw or Jong Utrecht

48%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+

30%

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals

85%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

57%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

30%

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

72%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

37%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

67%

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Den Bosch scores more

52%

level

22%

Jong Utrecht scores more

26%

Den Bosch at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff