Jong AZ 1–2 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Jong AZ

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jong Ajax

R. Robbemond 88'

D. O'Niel 55' (pen)

B. van Duijl 34' (OG)

1/12/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 22AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jong AZ47%

×Draw24%

Jong Ajax29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.30

Jong AZ

1.71

Jong Ajax

1.30

Jong AZ creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.66

creates per match

1.05

1.55

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.66

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.55

Jong Ajax

1.77

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

71%

Jong AZ or Jong Ajax

76%

Draw or Jong Ajax

53%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

25%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

82%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

51%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

24%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

73%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

37%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

62%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong AZ scores more

47%

level

24%

Jong Ajax scores more

29%

Jong AZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Heerkens

Jong Ajax · G

9.6

Match Events

34'

B. van DuijlOwn goal

42'

Bogdan Budko

43'

Rayan Atikallah

46'

M. Menu← R. Atikallah

48'

Mylo van der Lans

54'

Sem van Duijn

55'

D. O'NielPenalty

62'

J. Oerip← M. Sin

62'

S. Simons← B. Budko

62'

J. Hartog← A. Oufkir

65'

J. Johnson← M. van der Lans

71'

G. Alders← A. Appiah

71'

K. Wolff← P. Nash

71'

D. van der Vaart← N. Chourak

76'

K. Toppenberg← W. Bouziane

88'

R. Robbemond↳ S. Simons

90+5'

Mohamed Abdalla

90+5'

Gerald Alders

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongJong

Overview

61%Possession39%

28Total Shots7

10Corners2

19Fouls7

Shots

28Total Shots7

12On Target1

8Off Target3

8Blocked3

20Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

492Total Passes319

421Accurate Passes254

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves10

Discipline

19Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 1–2 Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax beat Jong AZ 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 12, 2026.

Goals: B. van Duijl (34' o.g.), D. O'Niel (55' pen), R. Robbemond (88').

Jong AZ controlled possession (61%) and registered 28 shots to 7.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.

Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 1–2 Jong Ajax