Jong Ajax 1–2 Jong AZ: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jong AZ

J. Banel 45'

J. Addai 58' (pen), 55'

9/17/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 5Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Jong Ajax47%

×Draw24%

Jong AZ29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchJong AZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.25

Jong Ajax

1.67

Jong AZ

1.25

Jong Ajax creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.18

creates per match

0.74

1.77

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.18

Jong AZ

0.74

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.77

Jong AZ

2.15

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.53scores more

Jong AZ+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Jong AZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

71%

Jong Ajax or Jong AZ

76%

Draw or Jong AZ

53%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

25%

Jong AZ wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

81%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

50%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

23%

Jong AZ 1+ goals

71%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

36%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

62%

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.18 + Jong AZ defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

Jong AZ attack 0.74 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

47%

level

24%

Jong AZ scores more

29%

Jong Ajax at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Addai

Jong AZ · M

9.2

Match Events

9'

19'

23'

45+2'

45+2'

45+3'

Lequincio ZeefuikMissed penalty

45'

J. Banel↳ N. Chourak

46'

N. Verschuren← J. Banel

46'

D. Konadu← J. Rijkhoff

52'

Charlie Setford

55'

J. Addai↳ E. Dijkstra

58'

J. AddaiPenalty

60'

60'

60'

73'

76'

78'

J. Kalisvaart← J. Addai

79'

J. Esajas← M. Engel

84'

A. van Axel Dongen← J. Mokio

88'

Nick Verschuren

90+1'

Rida Chahid

90'

J. Gerold← L. Zeefuik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongJong

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots24

4Corners10

16Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots24

4On Target9

2Off Target10

5Blocked5

8Inside Box13

3Outside Box11

Passing

37%Possession63%

281Total Passes494

209Accurate Passes446

74%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

7Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2