Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
4/3/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 34AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong AZ50%
×Draw23%
Helmond Sport27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.82
Helmond Sport
1.26

Jong AZ creates 44% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
Helmond Sport
0.90

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.95

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
73%
Jong AZ or Helmond Sport
77%
Draw or Helmond Sport
50%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
28%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
84%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
54%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
27%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
72%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
36%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
66%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Helmond Sport defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.82

Helmond Sport attack 0.90 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jong AZ scores more
50%
level
23%
Helmond Sport scores more
27%

Jong AZ at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 2–0 Helmond Sport

Jong AZ beat Helmond Sport 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.