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Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
1/26/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Helmond Sport44%
×Draw24%
Jong AZ32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helmond Sport
1.68
Jong AZ
1.39

Helmond Sport creates 21% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

Helmond Sport
1.39
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

Helmond Sport
1.51
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw
68%
Helmond Sport or Jong AZ
76%
Draw or Jong AZ
56%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+
23%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals
81%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
50%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
24%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
75%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
40%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
58%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.68

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Helmond Sport scores more
44%
level
24%
Jong AZ scores more
32%

Helmond Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Helmond Sport 2–1 Jong AZ

Helmond Sport beat Jong AZ 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Helmond.