Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jong AZ vs Groningen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Groningen
Groningen
11/27/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jong AZ29%
×Draw24%
Groningen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.27
Groningen
1.68

Groningen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
Groningen
1.74

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
Groningen
0.84

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
53%
Jong AZ or Groningen
76%
Draw or Groningen
71%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
12%
Groningen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
72%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
36%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
14%
Groningen 1+ goals
81%
Groningen 2+ goals
50%
Groningen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
38%
Groningen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Groningen defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Groningen attack 1.74 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong AZ scores more
29%
level
24%
Groningen scores more
47%

Groningen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs Groningen

Groningen beat Jong AZ 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 27, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.