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Groningen vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
1/26/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen60%
×Draw21%
Jong AZ19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.98
Jong AZ
1.00

Groningen creates 98% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
81%
Groningen or Jong AZ
79%
Draw or Jong AZ
40%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
36%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
86%
Groningen 2+ goals
59%
Groningen 3+ goals
31%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
63%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
26%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
76%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Groningen scores more
60%
level
21%
Jong AZ scores more
19%

Groningen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen vs Jong AZ

Groningen beat Jong AZ 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.