Jong AZ 0–1 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

Jong AZ

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Volendam

A. Plat 63'

4/14/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 34AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jong AZ26%

×Draw23%

FC Volendam51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.89

Jong AZ

1.29

FC Volendam

1.89

FC Volendam creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.59

creates per match

2.00

1.78

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.59

FC Volendam

2.00

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.78

FC Volendam

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

49%

Jong AZ or FC Volendam

77%

Draw or FC Volendam

74%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

11%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

72%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

37%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

14%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

85%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

56%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

34%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.59 + FC Volendam defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Volendam attack 2.00 + Jong AZ defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jong AZ scores more

26%

level

23%

FC Volendam scores more

51%

FC Volendam at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Plat

FC Volendam · M

8.2

Match Events

34'

S. van Duijn← R. Daal

45+2'

53'

59'

63'

65'

69'

B. van Duijl← L. Schouten

69'

73'

78'

78'

88'

M. Zijlstra← H. Veerman

88'

N. Bukala← B. Ould-Chikh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots15

5Corners9

16Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target3

3Off Target7

5Blocked5

8Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

441Total Passes316

361Accurate Passes232

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides5

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs FC Volendam

FC Volendam beat Jong AZ 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Plat (63').

Jong AZ controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.

Jong AZ vs FC Volendam — Eerste Divisie 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs FC Volendam