Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jong AZ vs FC Volendam — Eerste Divisie 2025

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Volendam
FC Volendam
D. van Mieghem 61'
10/22/2021Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jong AZ26%
×Draw23%
FC Volendam51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.29
FC Volendam
1.89

FC Volendam creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.59
FC Volendam
2.00

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.78
FC Volendam
1.00

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

FC Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
49%
Jong AZ or FC Volendam
77%
Draw or FC Volendam
74%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
11%
FC Volendam wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
72%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
37%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
14%
FC Volendam 1+ goals
85%
FC Volendam 2+ goals
56%
FC Volendam 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
34%
FC Volendam (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.59 + FC Volendam defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Volendam attack 2.00 + Jong AZ defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jong AZ scores more
26%
level
23%
FC Volendam scores more
51%

FC Volendam at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. van MieghemFC VolendamFC Volendam · M
8.7

Match Events

61'
D. van Mieghem↳ B. Deul
70'
M. Kaars← I. El Kadiri
70'
S. Ben Sallam← A. Plat
75'
Brian Plat
77'
I. Griffith← B. Franken
77'
R. Sedláček← M. Dekker
82'
M. Engel← S. Dirks
83'
M. Eerdhuijzen← D. James
88'
R. Kewal← E. Poku
90+1'
M. de Haan← C. Twigt
90+1'
W. Ould-Chikh← D. van Mieghem

Possession

33%Jong

Shots

5Jong

Pass accuracy

46%Jong

Statistics

JongFC
Overview
33%Possession67%
5Total Shots17
4Corners9
15Fouls5
Shots
5Total Shots17
1On Target7
1Off Target3
3Blocked7
4Inside Box11
1Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
260Total Passes549
190Accurate Passes480
73%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 0–1 FC Volendam

FC Volendam beat Jong AZ 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 22, 2021.

Goals: D. van Mieghem (61').

FC Volendam controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.