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Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
J. Esajas 80'
K. Smit 68'
R. Janga 64'
S. Simons 57', 19'
10/4/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong AZ43%
×Draw24%
FC Eindhoven33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.67
FC Eindhoven
1.44

Jong AZ creates 16% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.69
FC Eindhoven
1.27

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.60
FC Eindhoven
1.64

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
67%
Jong AZ or FC Eindhoven
76%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
57%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
22%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
81%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
50%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
23%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
76%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
42%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
56%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.60 · 147 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.69 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Eindhoven attack 1.27 + Jong AZ defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong AZ scores more
43%
level
24%
FC Eindhoven scores more
33%

Jong AZ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. SimonsFC EindhovenFC Eindhoven · M
8.9

Match Events

10'
Terrence Douglas
19'
S. Simons↳ B. van Schuppen
21'
Luuk Verheij
26'
Misha Engel
27'
Sven Simons
57'
S. Simons↳ S. Blummel
60'
J. Sleegers← D. Dorenbosch
62'
Y. van den Ban← D. Kwakman
62'
B. van Duijl← M. Engel
62'
J. Kalisvaart← A. Smits
64'
R. Janga↳ L. Verheij
68'
K. Smit↳ R. Daal
72'
Sven Blummel
73'
T. Simons← S. Blummel
74'
K. Toppenberg← J. Gerold
80'
J. Esajas↳ K. Smit
82'
Daan Huisman
86'
A. El Bouchataoui← B. van Schuppen
90+2'
Tyrese Simons

Possession

71%Jong

Shots

13Jong

Pass accuracy

55%Jong

Statistics

JongFC
Overview
71%Possession29%
13Total Shots14
8Corners4
13Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target6
3Off Target3
5Blocked5
9Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
71%Possession29%
665Total Passes266
588Accurate Passes193
88%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards6
4Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 2–3 FC Eindhoven

FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on October 4, 2024.

Goals: S. Simons (19', 57'), R. Janga (64'), K. Smit (68'), J. Esajas (80').

Jong AZ controlled possession (71%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.