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FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
3/1/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 28Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Eindhoven48%
×Draw23%
Jong AZ29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.80
Jong AZ
1.36

FC Eindhoven creates 32% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.64
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
71%
FC Eindhoven or Jong AZ
77%
Draw or Jong AZ
52%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
26%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
83%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
54%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
27%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
74%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
39%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
62%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 148 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.64 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
48%
level
23%
Jong AZ scores more
29%

FC Eindhoven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Eindhoven vs Jong AZ

FC Eindhoven and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.