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Jong AZ vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
E. Dijkstra 72'
K. Smit 70'
M. Mahi 82'
A. van der Heide 41'
9/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 7AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong AZ43%
×Draw22%
De Graafschap34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.87
De Graafschap
1.65

Jong AZ creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.61
De Graafschap
1.73

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.56
De Graafschap
2.13

finishing

Jong AZ-0.32scores less
De Graafschap-0.06on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
66%
Jong AZ or De Graafschap
78%
Draw or De Graafschap
57%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
23%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
85%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
56%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
29%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
81%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
49%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
56%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.56 · 7 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.61 + De Graafschap defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.87

De Graafschap attack 1.73 + Jong AZ defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong AZ scores more
43%
level
22%
De Graafschap scores more
34%

Jong AZ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
E. DijkstraJong AZJong AZ · D
8.3

Match Events

41'
A. van der Heide↳ D. Warmerdam
46'
J. Esajas← R. Atikallah
52'
Elijah Dijkstra
62'
K. Toppenberg← E. Poku
64'
Jorn Berkhout
70'
K. Smit↳ E. Dijkstra
71'
Y. Eduardo← A. van der Heide
71'
R. Seuntjens← J. van de Haar
72'
E. Dijkstra↳ D. Kwakman
78'
A. Smits← L. Zeefuik
79'
M. Mahi← I. El Kadiri
82'
M. Mahi
83'
Yannick Eduardo
87'
J. Hardeman← D. Warmerdam

Possession

67%Jong

Shots

19Jong

Pass accuracy

54%Jong

Statistics

JongDe
Overview
67%Possession33%
19Total Shots10
12Corners4
8Fouls8
Shots
19Total Shots10
6On Target4
6Off Target5
7Blocked1
9Inside Box5
10Outside Box5
Passing
67%Possession33%
599Total Passes294
512Accurate Passes208
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap

Jong AZ and De Graafschap drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on September 23, 2024.

Goals: A. van der Heide (41'), K. Smit (70'), E. Dijkstra (72'), M. Mahi (82').

Jong AZ controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.