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De Graafschap vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
D. Warmerdam 90+2'
R. Niemeijer 65'
J. van de Haar 31'
T. van Gilst 21', 3'
J. Kalisvaart 87'
2/21/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

De Graafschap64%
×Draw19%
Jong AZ17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
2.26
Jong AZ
1.06

De Graafschap creates 113% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
2.44
Jong AZ
0.84

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.28
Jong AZ
2.08

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less
Jong AZ+0.36scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
83%
De Graafschap or Jong AZ
81%
Draw or Jong AZ
36%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
41%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
89%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
66%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
39%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
65%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
29%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
79%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + Jong AZ defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.26

Jong AZ attack 0.84 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

De Graafschap scores more
64%
level
19%
Jong AZ scores more
17%

De Graafschap at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
T. van GilstDe GraafschapDe Graafschap · M
8.3

Match Events

3'
T. van Gilst
21'
T. van Gilst↳ Jeffry Fortes
31'
J. van de Haar
46'
R. Besselink← M. Willemsen
46'
R. Seuntjens← J. van de Haar
46'
L. Kaak← A. Najah
46'
Y. van den Ban← J. Oerip
46'
J. Esajas← J. Gerold
46'
N. Twisk← K. Boogaard
46'
I. Splinter← K. Toppenberg
65'
R. Niemeijer↳ A. van der Heide
68'
W. Bouziane← E. Dijkstra
72'
D. Warmerdam← A. van der Heide
77'
L. Schoppema← R. Niemeijer
87'
J. Kalisvaart↳ I. Splinter
90+2'
D. Warmerdam

Possession

40%De

Shots

18De

Pass accuracy

46%De

Statistics

DeJong
Overview
40%Possession60%
18Total Shots9
2Corners5
8Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots9
10On Target3
6Off Target3
2Blocked3
14Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
40%Possession60%
352Total Passes532
241Accurate Passes430
68%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Offsides3

Match Recap: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ

De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 5-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 21, 2025.

Goals: T. van Gilst (3', 21'), J. van de Haar (31'), R. Niemeijer (65'), J. Kalisvaart (87'), D. Warmerdam (90+2').

Jong AZ controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.