Jong AZ vs Almere City FC — Eerste Divisie 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Jong AZ38%
Almere City FC39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jong AZ ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches
Almere City FC away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jong AZ attack 1.66 + Almere City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65
Almere City FC attack 1.80 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Almere City FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
ADO Den Haag
Willem II
CambuurAlmere City FC
De Graafschap
Waalwijk
Roda
Vitesse
Jong PSV U21
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC Eindhoven
Jong Utrecht
VVV Venlo
Emmen
FC OSSJong AZ
Helmond Sport
MVV
Jong Ajax
FC VolendamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Jong AZ host Almere City FC on Monday, 22 August 2022 at 18:00. The match is part of the Eerste Divisie 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC
Jong AZ beat Almere City FC 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on August 22, 2022.
Goals: I. Griffith (7'), M. Dekker (28'), F. de Jong (72'), J. Hilterman (75'), T. Poll (90+3').
Almere City FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 13.
The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.