Almere City FC 0–3 Jong AZ: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Jong AZ

M. Taabouni 87' (pen), 77'

M. Meerdink 68'

5/6/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 38Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Almere City FC61%

×Draw20%

Jong AZ19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchJong AZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.11

Almere City FC

2.16

Jong AZ

1.11

Almere City FC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.16

creates per match

0.74

1.49

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Almere City FC

2.16

Jong AZ

0.74

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.49

Jong AZ

2.15

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.70scores more

Jong AZ+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Jong AZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

81%

Almere City FC or Jong AZ

80%

Draw or Jong AZ

39%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

38%

Jong AZ wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

88%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

63%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

36%

Jong AZ 1+ goals

67%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

30%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

77%

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.49 · 7 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 2.16 + Jong AZ defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.16

Jong AZ attack 0.74 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Almere City FC scores more

61%

level

20%

Jong AZ scores more

19%

Almere City FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Taabouni

Jong AZ · M

8.2

Match Events

46'

L. Kromah← B. van Hoeven

51'

Fedde De Jong

56'

J. Arweiler← M. Pouwels

58'

Nordin Bakker

65'

I. Griffith← P. Koopmeiners

65'

M. Meerdink← J. Duin

66'

M. van Brederode← E. Poku

68'

M. Meerdink↳ Z. Buurmeester

72'

T. Wildeboer← S. Resink

72'

J. Puriel← I. Alhaft

72'

Q. Dekkers← R. Lathouwers

77'

F. Hammouti← R. Leeuwin

77'

M. Taabouni↳ Q. Dekkers

82'

Jeffry Puriel

84'

M. Engel← M. Kerkez

87'

M. TaabouniPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereJong

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots16

6Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots16

3On Target8

7Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

397Total Passes382

284Accurate Passes275

72%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1