Jong Aruba 0–6 Estrella: Result & Stats

Jong Aruba

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Estrella

12/15/2024

Division di Honor · Round 9Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jong Aruba24%

×Draw18%

Estrella58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong ArubaExpected goals in this matchEstrella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.82

Jong Aruba

1.79

Estrella

2.82

Estrella creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 60 away

1.11

creates per match

2.08

3.56

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Jong Aruba

1.11

Estrella

2.08

allows per match

Jong Aruba

3.56

Estrella

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Aruba+0.00on par

Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Aruba ↓

Estrella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Jong Aruba or draw

42%

Jong Aruba or Estrella

82%

Draw or Estrella

76%

Winning margin

Jong Aruba wins by 2+

11%

Estrella wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Jong Aruba 1+ goals

83%

Jong Aruba 2+ goals

53%

Jong Aruba 3+ goals

26%

Estrella 1+ goals

94%

Estrella 2+ goals

77%

Estrella 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Jong Aruba (draw refunded)

29%

Estrella (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Aruba at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 9 matches

Estrella away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.48 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Aruba attack 1.11 + Estrella defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.79

Estrella attack 2.08 + Jong Aruba defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jong Aruba scores more

24%

level

18%

Estrella scores more

58%

Estrella at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff