Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Estrella vs Jong Aruba — Division di Honor 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Jong Aruba
Jong Aruba
6/2/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Estrella32%
×Draw20%
Jong Aruba48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.95
Jong Aruba
2.40

Jong Aruba creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 10 away

creates per match

Estrella
1.70
Jong Aruba
1.70

allows per match

Estrella
3.11
Jong Aruba
2.20

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Jong Aruba+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Jong Aruba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
52%
Estrella or Jong Aruba
80%
Draw or Jong Aruba
68%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
17%
Jong Aruba wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
86%
Estrella 2+ goals
58%
Estrella 3+ goals
31%
Jong Aruba 1+ goals
91%
Jong Aruba 2+ goals
69%
Jong Aruba 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
40%
Jong Aruba (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 1.70, concedes 3.11 · 56 matches

Jong Aruba away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 1.70 + Jong Aruba defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.95

Jong Aruba attack 1.70 + Estrella defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Estrella scores more
32%
level
20%
Jong Aruba scores more
48%

Jong Aruba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jong Aruba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: Estrella 0–4 Jong Aruba

Jong Aruba beat Estrella 4-0 in Division di Honor on June 2, 2026.