Jong Ajax 1–2 FC OSS: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC OSS

P. Nash 75'

M. Hinoke 81'

L. Miguel 49'

4/13/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 36Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong Ajax51%

×Draw23%

FC OSS25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchFC OSS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.18

Jong Ajax

1.78

FC OSS

1.18

Jong Ajax creates 51% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

1.91

creates per match

0.90

1.46

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.91

FC OSS

0.90

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.46

FC OSS

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

FC OSS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

75%

Jong Ajax or FC OSS

77%

Draw or FC OSS

49%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

28%

FC OSS wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

83%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

53%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

26%

FC OSS 1+ goals

69%

FC OSS 2+ goals

33%

FC OSS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

67%

FC OSS (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

51%

level

23%

FC OSS scores more

25%

Jong Ajax at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. Miguel

FC OSS · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

D. O'Niel← K. Wolff

46'

M. Mariani← I. Pata

46'

S. Doucoure← L. Mol

49'

L. Miguel↳ B. Van Hove

53'

Mark Verkuijl

59'

T. Peters← M. Verkuijl

59'

P. Nash← D. Konadu

73'

M. Abdalla← M. van der Lans

75'

P. Nash↳ D. O'Niel

81'

M. Hinoke

82'

J. Kuijpers← L. Slagveer

83'

E. Unuvar← A. Ouazane

83'

K. de Wit← M. Hinoke

86'

Siriné Doucouré

89'

M. van de Wiel← M. van Rooijen

90+5'

Marcelencio Esajas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongFC

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots13

9Corners7

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots13

3On Target5

5Off Target4

9Blocked4

10Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

429Total Passes254

374Accurate Passes189

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2