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Jong Ajax vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
5/9/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong Ajax51%
×Draw23%
FC OSS25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Ajax
1.78
FC OSS
1.18

Jong Ajax creates 51% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong Ajax
1.91
FC OSS
0.90

allows per match

Jong Ajax
1.46
FC OSS
1.65

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par
FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw
75%
Jong Ajax or FC OSS
77%
Draw or FC OSS
49%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+
28%
FC OSS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals
83%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
53%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
26%
FC OSS 1+ goals
69%
FC OSS 2+ goals
33%
FC OSS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
67%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jong Ajax scores more
51%
level
23%
FC OSS scores more
25%

Jong Ajax at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong Ajax 0–0 FC OSS

Jong Ajax and FC OSS drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.