Jong Ajax 3–2 Excelsior: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Excelsior

S. Vink 81'

R. Bounida 57'

A. Kaplan 53'

I. Bronkhorst 60'

R. van de Pavert 22' (OG)

2/10/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 25Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Jong Ajax42%

×Draw23%

Excelsior35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchExcelsior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.57

Jong Ajax

1.73

Excelsior

1.57

Jong Ajax creates 10% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 69 away

1.90

creates per match

1.71

1.44

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.90

Excelsior

1.71

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.44

Excelsior

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Excelsior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

65%

Jong Ajax or Excelsior

77%

Draw or Excelsior

58%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

22%

Excelsior wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

82%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

52%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

25%

Excelsior 1+ goals

79%

Excelsior 2+ goals

46%

Excelsior 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

54%

Excelsior (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.44 · 144 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.90 + Excelsior defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Excelsior attack 1.71 + Jong Ajax defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

42%

level

23%

Excelsior scores more

35%

Jong Ajax at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Kaplan

Jong Ajax · D

7.9

Match Events

22'

R. van de PavertOwn goal

46'

L. Jetten← D. Janse

46'

D. Konadu← S. Steur

51'

Derensili Sanches Fernandes

53'

A. Kaplan

57'

R. Bounida↳ J. Faberski

60'

I. Bronkhorst

61'

S. Vink← R. Bounida

64'

N. Martens← J. Donkor

72'

P. Ugwu← R. van de Pavert

72'

J. Bergraaf← D. Sanches Fernandes

72'

M. van Duinen← R. Omorowa

74'

Calvin Raatsie

81'

D. Kalokoh← J. Rijkhoff

81'

S. Vink↳ D. Konadu

85'

R. Rosario← S. Fini

85'

D. Warmerdam← A. Zagré

90+5'

Jerolldino Bergraaf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongExcelsior

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots14

9Corners7

10Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots14

6On Target2

5Off Target8

4Blocked4

9Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

433Total Passes439

348Accurate Passes360

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls19

0Yellow Cards3