Excelsior 5–1 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Excelsior

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Jong Ajax

J. Zwarts 90+5'

A. Mendes Moreira 82'

R. Niemeijer 24'

J. Baas 20'

R. Hillen 8' (OG)

K. Taylor 74' (pen)

3/1/2021

Eerste Divisie · Round 26Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Excelsior53%

×Draw21%

Jong Ajax26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExcelsiorExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.46

Excelsior

2.16

Jong Ajax

1.46

Excelsior creates 48% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 145 away

2.27

creates per match

1.46

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Excelsior

2.27

Jong Ajax

1.46

allows per match

Excelsior

1.46

Jong Ajax

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior+0.00on par

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw

74%

Excelsior or Jong Ajax

79%

Draw or Jong Ajax

47%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+

32%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals

88%

Excelsior 2+ goals

63%

Excelsior 3+ goals

36%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

77%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

43%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)

67%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.46 · 70 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.04 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 2.27 + Jong Ajax defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.16

Jong Ajax attack 1.46 + Excelsior defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Excelsior scores more

53%

level

21%

Jong Ajax scores more

26%

Excelsior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Taylor

Jong Ajax · M

8.5

Match Events

8'

R. HillenOwn goal

20'

J. Baas↳ M. Wieffer

24'

R. Niemeijer↳ A. Mendes Moreira

41'

D. Warmerdam← R. Hillen

41'

A. Martha← C. Rasmussen

54'

Neraysho Kasanwirjo

62'

L. van Gelderen← E. Llansana

62'

K. Fitz-Jim← J. Ekkelenkamp

74'

K. TaylorPenalty

77'

J. Zwarts← E. Ómarsson

78'

M. van Rooijen← L. Bruins

80'

Abdallah Aberkane

82'

A. Mendes Moreira↳ M. Wieffer

84'

T. Douglas← Y. Baas

90+3'

D. van Delft← A. Mendes Moreira

90+5'

J. Zwarts↳ R. Niemeijer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExcelsiorJong

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots16

2Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target8

2Off Target8

4Blocked0

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

366Total Passes573

266Accurate Passes484

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1