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Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
8/30/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong Ajax52%
×Draw22%
Den Bosch26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Ajax
1.96
Den Bosch
1.32

Jong Ajax creates 48% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong Ajax
1.91
Den Bosch
1.19

allows per match

Jong Ajax
1.46
Den Bosch
2.01

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par
Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw
74%
Jong Ajax or Den Bosch
78%
Draw or Den Bosch
48%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+
30%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals
86%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
58%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
31%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
73%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
38%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
67%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.96

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jong Ajax scores more
52%
level
22%
Den Bosch scores more
26%

Jong Ajax at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong Ajax 1–2 Den Bosch

Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.