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Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
8/8/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 1De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Den Bosch46%
×Draw23%
Jong Ajax31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.85
Jong Ajax
1.49

Den Bosch creates 24% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.67
Jong Ajax
1.48

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.50
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
69%
Den Bosch or Jong Ajax
77%
Draw or Jong Ajax
54%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
25%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
84%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
55%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
28%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
77%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
44%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
60%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Den Bosch scores more
46%
level
23%
Jong Ajax scores more
31%

Den Bosch at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax

Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 8, 2025.

The match was played at De Vliert.