Jong Ajax 1–1 Cambuur: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cambuur

P. Ugwu 55'

J. Hilterman 63'

2/24/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 27Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Jong Ajax36%

×Draw23%

Cambuur40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchCambuur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.67

Jong Ajax

1.58

Cambuur

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 145 home / 106 away

1.90

creates per match

1.92

1.43

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.90

Cambuur

1.92

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.43

Cambuur

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Cambuur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Cambuur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

60%

Jong Ajax or Cambuur

77%

Draw or Cambuur

64%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

18%

Cambuur wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

79%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

47%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

21%

Cambuur 1+ goals

81%

Cambuur 2+ goals

50%

Cambuur 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

48%

Cambuur (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Cambuur away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.90 + Cambuur defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cambuur attack 1.92 + Jong Ajax defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

36%

level

23%

Cambuur scores more

40%

Cambuur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Nartey

Cambuur · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

Tony Rölke

46'

N. Chourak← D. Konadu

55'

P. Ugwu↳ S. Steur

59'

Lucas Jetten

60'

J. Hilterman← T. Rölke

60'

G. Caschili← T. Galvez

63'

J. Hilterman↳ B. Nieling

70'

I. Alhaft← B. Pauwels

70'

M. de Leeuw← M. Kieftenbeld

75'

D. Kalokoh← S. Steur

75'

S. Vink← R. Bounida

83'

Jeredy Hilterman

84'

F. de Jong← M. Nartey

85'

R. van de Pavert← L. Jetten

87'

Tyrique Mercera

90+6'

Michael de Leeuw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongCambuur

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots11

1Corners3

9Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target4

2Off Target5

5Blocked2

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

451Total Passes411

376Accurate Passes315

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2