Cambuur 4–1 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Cambuur

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Jong Ajax

I. Henstra 90'

O. Sjostrand 66'

T. Rolke 23'

B. Marsman 8'

N. Chourak 10'

11/1/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Kooi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Cambuur55%

×Draw21%

Jong Ajax24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CambuurExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.34

Cambuur

2.10

Jong Ajax

1.34

Cambuur creates 57% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 145 away

2.17

creates per match

1.46

1.22

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Cambuur

2.17

Jong Ajax

1.46

allows per match

Cambuur

1.22

Jong Ajax

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambuur+0.00on par

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Cambuur or draw

76%

Cambuur or Jong Ajax

79%

Draw or Jong Ajax

45%

Winning margin

Cambuur wins by 2+

33%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cambuur 1+ goals

88%

Cambuur 2+ goals

62%

Cambuur 3+ goals

35%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

74%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

39%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cambuur (draw refunded)

69%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.22 · 108 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.04 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur attack 2.17 + Jong Ajax defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.10

Jong Ajax attack 1.46 + Cambuur defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cambuur scores more

55%

level

21%

Jong Ajax scores more

24%

Cambuur at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Sjostrand

Cambuur · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

B. Marsman↳ J. Amofa

10'

N. Chourak↳ T. Peters

23'

T. Rolke↳ M. Diemers

39'

Kayden Wolff

60'

Skye Vink

66'

O. Sjostrand↳ R. Balk

67'

L. Jetten← E. Butera

67'

L. Messori← D. O'Niel

67'

M. Verkuijl← N. Chourak

72'

I. Henstra← I. Ferrah

72'

J. Nap← N. Souren

77'

D. Jermoumi← B. Marsman

77'

N. Binder← T. Rolke

79'

M. Muzungu← G. Alders

79'

Z. Ouazane← S. Vink

90'

Y. van der Veen← O. Sjostrand

90'

I. Henstra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambuurJong

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots14

2Corners2

3Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots14

6On Target3

1Off Target7

3Blocked4

4Inside Box6

6Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

498Total Passes486

422Accurate Passes426

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Cambuur vs Jong Ajax

Cambuur beat Jong Ajax 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 1, 2025.

Goals: B. Marsman (8'), N. Chourak (10'), T. Rolke (23'), O. Sjostrand (66'), I. Henstra (90').

Cambuur controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Kooi Stadion in Leeuwarden.

Cambuur vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cambuur vs Jong Ajax