Jong Ajax 1–3 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

ADO Den Haag

9/15/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 6Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Jong Ajax38%

×Draw23%

ADO Den Haag39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.61

Jong Ajax

1.59

ADO Den Haag

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 95 away

1.91

creates per match

1.77

1.46

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.91

ADO Den Haag

1.77

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.46

ADO Den Haag

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

61%

Jong Ajax or ADO Den Haag

77%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

62%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

19%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

80%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

47%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

21%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

80%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

48%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

49%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

38%

level

23%

ADO Den Haag scores more

39%

ADO Den Haag at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff