ADO Den Haag 2–1 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jong Ajax

3/1/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 28Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADO Den Haag52%

×Draw22%

Jong Ajax26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den HaagExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.38

ADO Den Haag

2.01

Jong Ajax

1.38

ADO Den Haag creates 46% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 148 away

2.00

creates per match

1.48

1.28

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

ADO Den Haag

2.00

Jong Ajax

1.48

allows per match

ADO Den Haag

1.28

Jong Ajax

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw

74%

ADO Den Haag or Jong Ajax

78%

Draw or Jong Ajax

48%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

30%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

87%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

59%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

32%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

75%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

40%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

66%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.01

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more

52%

level

22%

Jong Ajax scores more

26%

ADO Den Haag at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff