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Jonava vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
1 – 0
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
A. Rocys 51'
6/26/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 4Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jonava38%
×Draw24%
Nevėžis38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.56
Nevėžis
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 94 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.78
Nevėžis
1.76

allows per match

Jonava
1.37
Nevėžis
1.33

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
62%
Jonava or Nevėžis
76%
Draw or Nevėžis
62%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
19%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
79%
Jonava 2+ goals
46%
Jonava 3+ goals
21%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
79%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
46%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
50%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + Nevėžis defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Nevėžis attack 1.76 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jonava scores more
38%
level
24%
Nevėžis scores more
38%

Jonava at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
A. Rocys
55'
K. Rukuiza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Jonava 1–0 Nevėžis

Jonava beat Nevėžis 1-0 in 1 Lyga on June 26, 2020.

Goals: A. Rocys (51').

The match was played at Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Jonava.