Jonava 0–2 FA Šiauliai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Jonava

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FA Šiauliai II

J. Penikas 75'

J. Radavicius 40'

4/7/2023

1 Lyga · Round 5Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Jonava53%

×Draw21%

FA Šiauliai II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchFA Šiauliai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.40

Jonava

2.10

FA Šiauliai II

1.40

Jonava creates 50% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 69 away

1.78

creates per match

1.43

1.37

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Jonava

1.78

FA Šiauliai II

1.43

allows per match

Jonava

1.37

FA Šiauliai II

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

FA Šiauliai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

75%

Jonava or FA Šiauliai II

79%

Draw or FA Šiauliai II

47%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

32%

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

88%

Jonava 2+ goals

62%

Jonava 3+ goals

35%

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals

75%

FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals

41%

FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

68%

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

FA Šiauliai II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + FA Šiauliai II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.10

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.43 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jonava scores more

53%

level

21%

FA Šiauliai II scores more

25%

Jonava at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

J. Radavicius

75'

J. Penikas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff