FA Šiauliai II 3–2 Jonava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

FA Šiauliai II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Jonava

J. Radavicius 67'

V. Jucys 57'

E. Gasiunas 29'

I. Pablo Alves Pereira 90+2'

M. Ndiaye 42'

8/26/2023

1 Lyga · Round 20Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

FA Šiauliai II34%

×Draw24%

Jonava42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FA Šiauliai IIExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.64

FA Šiauliai II

1.44

Jonava

1.64

Jonava creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

1.38

creates per match

1.32

1.96

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FA Šiauliai II

1.38

Jonava

1.32

allows per match

FA Šiauliai II

1.96

Jonava

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Šiauliai II ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FA Šiauliai II or draw

58%

FA Šiauliai II or Jonava

76%

Draw or Jonava

66%

Winning margin

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+

16%

Jonava wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals

76%

FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals

42%

FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals

18%

Jonava 1+ goals

81%

Jonava 2+ goals

49%

Jonava 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)

44%

Jonava (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Šiauliai II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.96 · 68 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.38 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jonava attack 1.32 + FA Šiauliai II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FA Šiauliai II scores more

34%

level

24%

Jonava scores more

42%

Jonava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

E. Gasiunas

42'

M. Ndiaye

57'

V. Jucys

67'

J. Radavicius

86'

B. Mytsyk

86'

B. Mytsyk

90+2'

I. Pablo Alves Pereira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff