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Joinville U20 vs Hercílio Luz U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Joinville U20
Joinville U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hercílio Luz U20
Hercílio Luz U20
7/6/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 19Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Joinville U2038%
×Draw25%
Hercílio Luz U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Joinville U20
1.44
Hercílio Luz U20
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

Joinville U20
1.32
Hercílio Luz U20
1.55

allows per match

Joinville U20
1.32
Hercílio Luz U20
1.55

finishing

Joinville U20+0.00on par
Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joinville U20 ↓

Hercílio Luz U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Joinville U20 or draw
62%
Joinville U20 or Hercílio Luz U20
75%
Draw or Hercílio Luz U20
62%

Winning margin

Joinville U20 wins by 2+
18%
Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Joinville U20 1+ goals
76%
Joinville U20 2+ goals
42%
Joinville U20 3+ goals
18%
Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals
76%
Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals
42%
Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Joinville U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joinville U20 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Hercílio Luz U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joinville U20 attack 1.32 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 1.55 + Joinville U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Joinville U20 scores more
38%
level
25%
Hercílio Luz U20 scores more
38%

Joinville U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Joinville U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Joinville U20 1–1 Hercílio Luz U20

Joinville U20 and Hercílio Luz U20 drew 1-1 in Catarinense U20 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Joinville in Joinville, Santa Catarina.