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Hercílio Luz U20 vs Joinville U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Hercílio Luz U20
Hercílio Luz U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Joinville U20
Joinville U20
4/30/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Lauro Koch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hercílio Luz U2057%
×Draw20%
Joinville U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hercílio Luz U20
2.23
Joinville U20
1.35

Hercílio Luz U20 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

creates per match

Hercílio Luz U20
2.27
Joinville U20
1.33

allows per match

Hercílio Luz U20
1.36
Joinville U20
2.19

finishing

Hercílio Luz U20+0.00on par
Joinville U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hercílio Luz U20 ↓

Joinville U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hercílio Luz U20 or draw
77%
Hercílio Luz U20 or Joinville U20
80%
Draw or Joinville U20
43%

Winning margin

Hercílio Luz U20 wins by 2+
35%
Joinville U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hercílio Luz U20 1+ goals
89%
Hercílio Luz U20 2+ goals
65%
Hercílio Luz U20 3+ goals
38%
Joinville U20 1+ goals
74%
Joinville U20 2+ goals
39%
Joinville U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hercílio Luz U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Joinville U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hercílio Luz U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Joinville U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hercílio Luz U20 attack 2.27 + Joinville U20 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.23

Joinville U20 attack 1.33 + Hercílio Luz U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hercílio Luz U20 scores more
57%
level
20%
Joinville U20 scores more
23%

Hercílio Luz U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hercílio Luz U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hercílio Luz U20 vs Joinville U20

Joinville U20 beat Hercílio Luz U20 4-2 in Catarinense U20 on April 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Lauro Koch in Braço do Norte, Santa Catarina.