Joinville U20 2–2 Avaí U20: Result & Stats

Joinville U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Avaí U20

5/25/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 13Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Joinville U2030%

×Draw25%

Avaí U2045%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Joinville U20Expected goals in this matchAvaí U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.58

Joinville U20

1.24

Avaí U20

1.58

Avaí U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.32

creates per match

1.84

1.32

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Joinville U20

1.32

Avaí U20

1.84

allows per match

Joinville U20

1.32

Avaí U20

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Joinville U20+0.00on par

Avaí U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joinville U20 ↓

Avaí U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Joinville U20 or draw

55%

Joinville U20 or Avaí U20

75%

Draw or Avaí U20

70%

Winning margin

Joinville U20 wins by 2+

13%

Avaí U20 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Joinville U20 1+ goals

71%

Joinville U20 2+ goals

35%

Joinville U20 3+ goals

13%

Avaí U20 1+ goals

79%

Avaí U20 2+ goals

47%

Avaí U20 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Joinville U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Avaí U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joinville U20 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Avaí U20 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joinville U20 attack 1.32 + Avaí U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Avaí U20 attack 1.84 + Joinville U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Joinville U20 scores more

30%

level

25%

Avaí U20 scores more

45%

Avaí U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avaí U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff