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Avaí U20 vs Joinville U20 — Catarinense U20 2026

Avaí U20
Avaí U20
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Joinville U20
Joinville U20
4/5/2025Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 1Centro de Formação de Atletas do Avaí Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Avaí U2058%
×Draw21%
Joinville U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avaí U20
2.12
Joinville U20
1.19

Avaí U20 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Avaí U20
2.04
Joinville U20
1.33

allows per match

Avaí U20
1.04
Joinville U20
2.19

finishing

Avaí U20+0.00on par
Joinville U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avaí U20 ↓

Joinville U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Avaí U20 or draw
79%
Avaí U20 or Joinville U20
79%
Draw or Joinville U20
42%

Winning margin

Avaí U20 wins by 2+
36%
Joinville U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avaí U20 1+ goals
88%
Avaí U20 2+ goals
62%
Avaí U20 3+ goals
35%
Joinville U20 1+ goals
70%
Joinville U20 2+ goals
33%
Joinville U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avaí U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Joinville U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avaí U20 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Joinville U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avaí U20 attack 2.04 + Joinville U20 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.12

Joinville U20 attack 1.33 + Avaí U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Avaí U20 scores more
58%
level
21%
Joinville U20 scores more
21%

Avaí U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Avaí U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Avaí U20 3–4 Joinville U20

Joinville U20 beat Avaí U20 4-3 in Catarinense U20 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas do Avaí Futebol Clube in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.