Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–1 UiTM FC: Result & Stats

Johor Darul Takzim FC

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

UiTM FC

Bergson 88'

Safawi Rasid 73'

G. Cabrera 50'

Joel 43'

7/25/2021

League #278 · Round 14Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC68%

×Draw19%

UiTM FC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchUiTM FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.83

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.17

UiTM FC

0.83

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 161% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

2.33

UiTM FC

0.67

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.00

UiTM FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

UiTM FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

UiTM FC →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

87%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or UiTM FC

81%

Draw or UiTM FC

32%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

44%

UiTM FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

89%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

64%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

36%

UiTM FC 1+ goals

56%

UiTM FC 2+ goals

20%

UiTM FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

84%

UiTM FC (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

UiTM FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.33 + UiTM FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

UiTM FC attack 0.67 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

68%

level

19%

UiTM FC scores more

13%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. N. bin Zaini

36'

Rafie Mat Yaacob← Alif Najmi

43'

Joel

45+2'

A. Shukri

50'

G. Cabrera

57'

Dirga Surdi← Ahmad Syahmi Shukri

63'

Afiq Fazail← Syamer Kutty Abba

63'

Safawi Rasid← Nazmi Faiz Mansor

66'

N. Insa

72'

Kwon Yong-Hyun

73'

Safawi Rasid

81'

Amirul Aiman Ibrahim← Khairul Izuan Rosli

81'

Fahmi Sabri← S. Gan Giannelli

84'

87'

Ahmad Hazwan Bakri← Arif Aiman Hanapi

87'

Akhyar Abdul Rashid← G. Cabrera

88'

Bergson

Johor

UiTM

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Mora

63'▲Afiq Fazail←▼Syamer Kutty Abba

63'▲Safawi Rasid←▼Nazmi Faiz Mansor

87'▲Ahmad Hazwan Bakri←▼Arif Aiman Hanapi

87'▲Akhyar Abdul Rashid←▼G. Cabrera

Johor Darul Takzim FC substitutes

4Fazail29Rasid18Bakri19Rashid10Velázquez26Nadzli15Baharudin12Kunanlan16Norhisham

Manager: F. Bernhardt

36'▲Rafie Mat Yaacob←▼Alif Najmi

57'▲Dirga Surdi←▼Ahmad Syahmi Shukri

81'▲Amirul Aiman Ibrahim←▼Khairul Izuan Rosli

81'▲Fahmi Sabri←▼S. Gan Giannelli

UiTM FC substitutes

7Yaacob17Surdi34Ibrahim9Sabri13Zainal5Shamsuri29Latif

League #278: Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–1 UiTM FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat UiTM FC 3-1 in League #278 on July 25, 2021.

Goals: Joel (43'), G. Cabrera (50'), Safawi Rasid (73'), Bergson (88').

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin in Nusajaya.

Johor Darul Takzim FC vs UiTM FC — League #278 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #278: Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–1 UiTM FC