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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs UiTM FC — Malaysia Cup 2019

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
3 – 1
UiTM FC
UiTM FC
8/2/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 1Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC85%
×Draw11%
UiTM FC4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.83
UiTM FC
0.49

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 478% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 4 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
3.41
UiTM FC
0.50

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.48
UiTM FC
2.25

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
UiTM FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

UiTM FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
96%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or UiTM FC
89%
Draw or UiTM FC
15%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
65%
UiTM FC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
94%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
77%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
53%
UiTM FC 1+ goals
39%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
9%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
95%
UiTM FC (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

UiTM FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 3.41 + UiTM FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.83

UiTM FC attack 0.50 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
85%
level
11%
UiTM FC scores more
4%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Johor Darul Takzim FC 3–1 UiTM FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat UiTM FC 3-1 in Malaysia Cup on August 2, 2019.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium in Johor Bahru.