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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Kuala Lumpur FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FCadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FA
12/21/2024Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC71%
×Draw17%
Kuala Lumpur FA12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.52
Kuala Lumpur FA
0.95

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 165% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
3.41
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.43

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.48
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.64

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
88%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Kuala Lumpur FA
83%
Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA
29%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
49%
Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
92%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
71%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
45%
Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
61%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
25%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
85%
Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 3.41 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.52

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.43 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
71%
level
17%
Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
12%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Kuala Lumpur FA

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Kuala Lumpur FA 4-0 in Malaysia Cup on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Ibrahim Larkin in Nusajaya.