Johor Darul Takzim FC 1–1 Gyeongnam FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gyeongnam FC

3/12/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Tan Sri Dato Haji Hassan Yunos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC41%

×Draw29%

Gyeongnam FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Johor Darul Takzim FCExpected goals in this matchGyeongnam FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.23

Gyeongnam FC

1.02

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

1.46

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.46

Gyeongnam FC

1.00

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.04

Gyeongnam FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Gyeongnam FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw

69%

Johor Darul Takzim FC or Gyeongnam FC

71%

Draw or Gyeongnam FC

59%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

18%

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

71%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

35%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

13%

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals

64%

Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals

27%

Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

57%

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.00 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

41%

level

29%

Gyeongnam FC scores more

31%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff