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Gyeongnam FC vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
5/22/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gyeongnam FC51%
×Draw22%
Johor Darul Takzim FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
1.98
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.38

Gyeongnam FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
2.00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.08

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.67
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.96

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
73%
Gyeongnam FC or Johor Darul Takzim FC
78%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
49%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
30%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
86%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
59%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
31%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
75%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
40%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
66%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 2.00 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
51%
level
22%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
27%

Gyeongnam FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Gyeongnam FC 2–0 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Gyeongnam FC beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on May 22, 2019.

The match was played at Changwon Football Center in Changwon.