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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Buriram United — ASEAN Club Championship 2024

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Buriram United
Buriram Unitedadvanced
5/6/2026ASEAN Club ChampionshipASEAN Club Championship · Semi-finalsSultan Ibrahim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC51%
×Draw23%
Buriram United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.88
Buriram United
1.31

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.75
Buriram United
1.63

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.00
Buriram United
1.00

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Buriram United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
73%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Buriram United
77%
Draw or Buriram United
49%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
28%
Buriram United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
85%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
56%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
29%
Buriram United 1+ goals
73%
Buriram United 2+ goals
38%
Buriram United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
65%
Buriram United (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Buriram United away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.75 + Buriram United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Buriram United attack 1.63 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
51%
level
23%
Buriram United scores more
27%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Buriram United

Buriram United beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 3-1 in ASEAN Club Championship on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Sultan Ibrahim Stadium in Johor Bahru.