Buriram United 0–0 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Buriram United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Johor Darul Takzim FC

3/4/2025

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Buriram United50%

×Draw24%

Johor Darul Takzim FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.14

Buriram United

1.68

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.14

Buriram United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.40

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Buriram United

1.40

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.08

allows per match

Buriram United

1.20

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

74%

Buriram United or Johor Darul Takzim FC

76%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

50%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

27%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

81%

Buriram United 2+ goals

50%

Buriram United 3+ goals

24%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

68%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

32%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

66%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 1.40 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.68

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Buriram United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Buriram United scores more

50%

level

24%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

26%

Buriram United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff