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Jocoro vs Fuerte San Francisco — Primera Division 2019

Jocoro
Jocoro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
1/28/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 4Estadio Correcaminos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jocoro46%
×Draw25%
Fuerte San Francisco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jocoro
1.52
Fuerte San Francisco
1.15

Jocoro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 67 away

creates per match

Jocoro
1.52
Fuerte San Francisco
0.94

allows per match

Jocoro
1.35
Fuerte San Francisco
1.51

finishing

Jocoro+0.00on par
Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jocoro ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jocoro or draw
71%
Jocoro or Fuerte San Francisco
75%
Draw or Fuerte San Francisco
54%

Winning margin

Jocoro wins by 2+
23%
Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jocoro 1+ goals
78%
Jocoro 2+ goals
45%
Jocoro 3+ goals
20%
Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
68%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
32%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jocoro (draw refunded)
61%
Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jocoro at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jocoro attack 1.52 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Jocoro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jocoro scores more
46%
level
25%
Fuerte San Francisco scores more
29%

Jocoro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jocoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jocoro vs Fuerte San Francisco

Jocoro and Fuerte San Francisco drew 0-0 in Primera Division on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Correcaminos in San Francisco Gotera.