Fuerte San Francisco 1–0 Jocoro: Result & Stats

Fuerte San Francisco

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jocoro

9/24/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 10Estadio Correcaminos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fuerte San Francisco39%

×Draw28%

Jocoro32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerte San FranciscoExpected goals in this matchJocoro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.06

Fuerte San Francisco

1.21

Jocoro

1.06

Fuerte San Francisco creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 103 away

0.79

creates per match

0.80

1.33

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Fuerte San Francisco

0.79

Jocoro

0.80

allows per match

Fuerte San Francisco

1.33

Jocoro

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Jocoro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerte San Francisco ↓

Jocoro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fuerte San Francisco or draw

68%

Fuerte San Francisco or Jocoro

72%

Draw or Jocoro

61%

Winning margin

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+

17%

Jocoro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals

70%

Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals

34%

Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals

12%

Jocoro 1+ goals

65%

Jocoro 2+ goals

29%

Jocoro 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)

55%

Jocoro (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerte San Francisco at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Jocoro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.79 + Jocoro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jocoro attack 0.80 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fuerte San Francisco scores more

39%

level

28%

Jocoro scores more

32%

Fuerte San Francisco at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fuerte San Francisco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff