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JKT Tanzania vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
5/4/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 25Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

JKT Tanzania43%
×Draw31%
Geita Gold26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.14
Geita Gold
0.81

JKT Tanzania creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 45 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.88
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.81
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
74%
JKT Tanzania or Geita Gold
69%
Draw or Geita Gold
57%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
18%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
68%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
32%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
11%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
56%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
19%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
63%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.81 · 81 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.88 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
43%
level
31%
Geita Gold scores more
26%

JKT Tanzania at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: JKT Tanzania 2–0 Geita Gold

JKT Tanzania beat Geita Gold 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Isamuhyo Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.