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Geita Gold vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Geita Gold
Geita Gold
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
11/22/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 10Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold40%
×Draw29%
JKT Tanzania31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geita Gold
1.18
JKT Tanzania
0.99

Geita Gold creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

creates per match

Geita Gold
1.09
JKT Tanzania
0.95

allows per match

Geita Gold
1.04
JKT Tanzania
1.26

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw
69%
Geita Gold or JKT Tanzania
71%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
60%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+
17%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals
69%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
33%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
12%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
63%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
26%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)
57%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Geita Gold scores more
40%
level
29%
JKT Tanzania scores more
31%

Geita Gold at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Geita Gold 1–0 JKT Tanzania

Geita Gold beat JKT Tanzania 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Nyankumbu Stadium in Geita.